by (text measure updated July 1. 2007)July 2. 2007 RESEARCH modify!: Our investigate paper describing air measurements that give my theory of the thermostatic control by precipitation systems (described below) has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters and it has been chosen to be "highlighted" as an important contribution. I'll affix again when a publication date is known. PROLOGUE & FULL DISCLOSURE(July 1. 2007)It has become commonplace for those of us scientists who are skeptical of mankind's role in global warming (I desire to label us global warming optimists) to be branded as shills for "Big Oil". As a result of misinformation posted at ExxonSecrets org (and other web sites that spread that misinformation). I have decided to set the record straight concerning my financial interests. I have never been asked by any energy affiliate to take a position on global warming -- or to do anything else for them hile I have given talks on global warming at conservative evaluate tanks desire the Marshall Institute (for no pay). I have also done the same for environmental organizations in several states. Apparently those who run ExxonSecrets org think that any association of my name with conservative organizations is sufficient "guilt by association" for the public to assume that I receive compensation from energy companies. After 12 years of receiving no compensation for my writings. I was eventually asked to create verbally global warming related articles for TechCentralStation com (now TCSDaily com). That website advocated science technology and free markets and was indeed partially funded by Exxon Mobil. While I no longer create verbally for that web site over a three year period I augmented my "day job" salary by an add up of 5% by writing articles. The views expressed in those articles were consistent with the views I had expressed for twelve years for no compensation. (Quite frankly since I supported the ideals promoted on TechCentralStation com. I really didn't compassionate who funded it). The alter little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists acquire far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself. While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists undergo day jobs which are not. Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken; there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists. Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals. As long as the global warming pessimists can persuade the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not undergo to communicate our scientific arguments. The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade obtain of global warming are quite simply do by (see below). Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and more and more scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankind's role in recent global warmth. IntroductionHere I show a simplified (but hopefully accurate) explanation of the basics of global warming - call it a global warming primer. First. I ordain address the air of how warm we are today and some possible explanations for that warmth. Next. I'll briefly describe the hide's natural greenhouse cause and global warming theory. Finally. I will inform the "thermostatic hold back" mechanism that I accept stabilizes the climate system against substantial global warming from mankind's greenhouse gas emissions. Some of what I will present is an extension of Richard Lindzen's "infrared iris" cause give for which has been recently open in air measurements. Warming Over the measure CenturyThere is little doubt that globally averaged temperatures are unusually warm today (at this writing. 2007). While a majority of climate researchers accept that this warmth is mostly (or completely) due to the activities of mankind this is as much a statement of faith as it is science. For in request to come to such a conclusion we would be to experience how much of the temperature increase we've seen since the 1800's is natural. So let's investigate current temperatures in their historical context. Over the measure 100 years or so (see Fig.1) globally-averaged surface temperature trends have exhibited three distinct phases. Fig. 1. Globally averaged surface temperature variations (deg. C) over the measure century (through 2006) undergo shown warming until about 1940 (which must undergo been natural) then a slight cooling until the 1970's (either natural or the prove of aerosol pollution) then steady warming since the 1970's (J. Hansen. NASA/GISS). The warming up until 1940 represents the end of the multi-century cool period known as the "Little Ice Age" which was historically a particularly harsh period for humanity. This warming must have been natural because mankind had not yet emitted substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. Then the brush aside cooling between 1940 and the 1970's occurred in arouse of rapid increases in manmade greenhouse gases. One theory is that this cooling is manmade -- from particulate pollution. Finally fairly steady warming has occurred since the 1970's. It should be noted that there is comfort some controversy over whether the upward temperature turn seen in Fig. 1 still contains some spurious warming from the urban heat island cause which is due to a replacement of natural vegetation with manmade structures (buildings parking lots etc.) around thermometer sites. Warming Over the Last MilleniumAt least in the context of the last century or more today's global temperatures are unusually warm. But when was the last time that the hide was this warm?. You might have heard claims in the news that we are warmer now than anytime in the last 1,000 years. This claim is based upon the "Hockey Stick" temperature curve (Fig. 2) which used temperature 'proxies' mostly tree rings to conjecture a multi-century temperature record. That "warmest in 1,000 years" affirm lost much of its give however when a National Acadamy of Science analyse panel concluded in 2006 that the most that can be said with any confidence is that the Earth is warmer now than anytime in the last 400 years. Note that this is a good thing since most of those 400 years occurred during the Little ice Age. Fig. 2. The Mann et al. (1998) proxy (mostly tree ring) reconstruction of global temperature over the last 1,000 years is believed to have erroneously minimized the warmth of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). But it turns out we don't be to use "proxies" for temperature like channelise go measurements -- there are actual temperature 'measurements' that go back over 1,000 years. Borehole temperatures are taken deep in the fasten where the seasonal make pass in ascend temperature sends an annual temperature beat down into the hide. Dating of these underground temperature pulses from Greenland (Fig. 3) reveals much warmer temperatures 1,000 years ago than today. Fig. 3. The GRIP (Greenland) borehole preserve is one of the best records because it is not a proxy it is a enjoin decide of temperature..
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