It’s time for the annual mc79hockey com team previews. They come with a twist - I’m a busy guy and will run out of time to do them them before the season starts. Also. I might not have anything interesting to say about a team. While the lack of anything interesting to say isn’t necessarily a bar to me writing something the point I’m trying to make here is that just because I’m doing previews there won’t necessarily be a preview of your favourite team - I didn’t get around to doing the Oilers last year oddly enough. In this regard. I refer you to the original motto of Larry Mahnken’s : “Hey it’s free!”. Oh and these aren’t so much “previews” as “musings about statistical oddities that caught my eye”. Again: “Hey it’s free!” If you’re wondering about the acronyms or stats that I refer to take a look at the glossary which I’ll create and then update as necessary. The position noted at the top is a divisional thing; I’ll throw up my estimate for the conference standings before the year starts.
I hate to go against Mirtle who’s basically a caricature of a Canadian in terms of his hockey consumption but he’s wrong about the Devils never taking a big step back. Since 2000-01 the Devils’ goal differential has gone +100. +18. +50. +49. +13 and +15. That’s a pretty clear slide to me. Now it’s hidden a bit by their points - they’ve put up 111. 95. 108. 100. 101 and 107 points since that time - but for all intents and purposes the Devils haven’t been a legitimate Stanley Cup contender since before the lockout.
While the points might look superficially similar there’s an increasingly fine line between their 100+ point seasons and disaster. Obviously the Devils have benefitted from the league’s ever changing rules - within 20 years. I expect all NHL teams to finish between 150 and 164 points. It’s more than that though for the Devils. Look at 2000-01 and 2006-07 the bookends of the time period I’m looking at. In 2000-01 they were 12-10-3 in 1 goal games. Last year they were 32-7-9 in one goal games including a 13-9 OT/SO record. Their regulation 1 goal game record is actually pretty astounding - 19-7 is pretty bloody impressive. Of course that means that they were 14-18 in regulation games that were decided by two or more goals. Contrast that with 2000-01: they were 43-19 in regulation that year. They went just 7-10 in regulation games decided by one goal and 36-9 in games decided by two goals or more. They’re relying on bounces a lot more than they used to and they’re basically at the point where the slightest further slip is going to result in a massive drop in the standings which they’re probably already teetering on the precipice of because their goal differential really doesn’t support the points totals that they’ve achieved since the lockout.
The Devils have relative to the NHL basically gotten worse at everything except stopping the puck. For my other previews I’ve posted the past two years of results that the team has generated - the Devils are a special case so I’ve gone back to 2003-04 to dig out what numbers are available. I think that their slide is pretty obvious when you look at it this way:
In 2003-04 they were a dominant ES team one of the best in the league. Now they’re averageish. They were a lousy PP team - that’s one of the few facets of their game that’s improved post-lockout. Their PK is particularly intriguing. I’ve got my 03-04 numbers backwards but they allowed 4.0 GA/60 while scoring 0.8 G/60. Look at how their shot prevention fell apart while shorthanded though. What’s even more interesting about this is that there’s been a huge bump in 5 on 3’s due to the altered rules but the Devils aren’t as affected by it because they don’t take nearly as many penalties. All that notwithstanding their SA/60 while shorthanded has simply erupted. They got away with it last year because their goalies had a big year against the PP; if they fall to average with that they’ve got a bad penalty kill. So what did the Devils lose from last year to this year? Well they lost a couple of pretty crucial parts of their success namely. Brian Rafalski and Scott Gomez. It’s not even that these guys are that special it’s more that they’re special in the context of the Devils. They were a combined +34 at ES. Rafalski played big minutes and put up big numbers for a defenceman on the PP. He also had solid ES offensive numbers. Who’s going to do it this year? You. Dainius Zubrus? You. Karel Rachunek? The gap left by these guys is greater than Devils fans can possibly fathom given how precarious this team’s status amongst the elite is/was. Lou may have neither the time nor the inclination to justify what he does but after this season. I think that there are going to be dozens of saddened Devils fans looking for answers. I’ve thought that this was the year that the Devils would fall apart before. While their previous losses have sliced away at their dominance at ES and on the PK they’ve managed to keep it together. The problem with this year is that while the Devils are the defending division champions the Rangers. Penguins and Flyers all improved significantly over the off-season. New Jersey just to stand still had to bring everyone back and get lucky again. They’ve lost two of the rare bits of sunlight on a bad PP they’ve lost one of the few elite offensive players that they had…at some point it just has to be too much for any team to overcome. The hiring of a Sutter didn’t do much to endear a team that I already dislike to me. Hopefully this is the year it finally happens. One would think that it will be.
Your comment about New Jersey’s “goalies” made me smile. For all the trumpeting in Vancouver about Luongo being the best goalie in the league — and admittedly carrying the sad-sack Canucks into the second round of the playoffs was no mean feat — Marty Brodeur was a deserving winner of the Vezina Trophy last year and IMO equally deserved the Hart Trophy. New Jersey scored just 206 real goals last year (discounting 10 shootout “goals”) yet garnered 107 standings points. The Devils finished 2nd in the east despite ranking dead last in the conference in (real) offence. Of Broduer’s NHL record* 48 wins a remarkable 20 occurred in games the Devils scored 2 goals or fewer in the actual hockey game. That is nothing short of astounding.
(* Yes. I know all wins records are tainted but however flawed the system you can’t argue New Jersey was successful at beating it … in the regular season at least.)
While the Devils can’t be considered a serious Cup contender anymore. Brodeur’s continuing performance at the highest competitive and statistical levels despite the departure of the Big Three of Stevens. Niedermayer and Daneyko does not get near enough credit IMO. Nor does his remarkable ability as a puck-retriever. -handler and -mover which doesn’t show up in any statistics (except maybe low SA) but which is a major factor in every game the Devils play. A retired wannabe goalie myself. I’ve watched every puck-handling goalie from Jacques Plante to Smoky McLeod to Ron Hextall to Marty Turco and I will say unequivocally that Brodeur is the best I’ve ever seen. Tons of positive plays and virtually no negative ones — when was the last time you saw somebody get a free empty-netter against the Devils? The New Jersey system of forcing the shoot-in plays right into his strengths.
“What’s even more interesting about this is that there’s been a huge bump in 5 on 3’s due to the altered rules but the Devils aren’t as affected by it because they don’t take nearly as many penalties.”
Excellent point the Devils are by far the most disciplined team in the league. They were shorthanded just 271 times last year (Tampa 305 all others 330+) and gave up just 40 PPGA (Minnesota 48 all others 55+). Their outstanding checking tandem of Madden and Pandolfo took just 14 and 8 PiM respectively last year and between them have just 265 PiM in 1214 career games or roughly one minor penalty every 9 GP. When you consider the tough minutes those guys draw the fact that neither of them has won the Byng is nothing short of an indictment of the PHWA.
Of course Pandolfo and Madden are also the first PK unit underscoring MC’s point about few 3-on-5s. The Devils allowed an NHL-low of just 2 GA 3-on-5 last season compared to a league average of 9 such GA.
As you mentioned the Devils were still excellent at stopping pucks last year. Brodeur had a career year and I believe was first in the league by most people’s Goals Saved account. However even with a career year he still had an excellent defense in front of him. His shot quality adjusted Save Percentage was only something like 11th in the league.
Further a team being as disciplined wrt taking penalties as the Devils are is HUGE for stopping pucks and probably being underrated by many. Brodeur’s save percentage numbers last year are likely even still a tad too favorable by the fact that he saw so many fewer SH shots - which are statistically much more likely to go in.
My point is the Devils have always been able to and still can play stellar team defense. I’m not convinced that the loss of Rafalski and Gomez as well as a regression from Marty will change that a WHOLE lot.
Their main bugaboo last season was unquestionably their offense. My feeling is that most people’s “preseason previews” will be fairly suspect simply because of the number of uncertainties surrounding the Devils’ offense this season. Injuries plagued many of their offensive talent last year and at a certain point in the season the Devils made the decision to not rush them back (due to the team’s large division lead) and that might artificially reflect brightly in the GF numbers.
The most intriguing thing about the general public annually saying “the Devils let go of another talent this offseason” is that most of those “talents” were homegrown players. Therefore who’s to say in a few years people won’t say the same thing about Zack Parise. Brian Gionta. Travis Zajac. David Clarkson. Nikolas Bergfors etc.
While there is no question a large amount of variance in the wide range of possible offensive outcomes for the Devils this season. I believe people are underestimating their ceiling. I count at least nine possible 20+ goal scorers on the team - each with obviously different degrees of certainty as well as higher or lower over/unders.
“As you mentioned the Devils were still excellent at stopping pucks last year. Brodeur had a career year and I believe was first in the league by most people’s Goals Saved account. However even with a career year he still had an excellent defense in front of him. His shot quality adjusted Save Percentage was only something like 11th in the league.”
Yeah that’s not the first time I’ve read something like that. As a team. New Jersey is outstanding at limiting quality scoring chances. Some folks — esp those based in Vancouver — have immediately taken the mental leap that Brodeur has the easiest job of any goalie in the league.
What’s missing from any analysis of opponent shot quality is the role the goalie himself plays in team defence above and beyond his role as stopper. In the case of Marty Brodeur sweeper non pareil he is not merely a passive beneficiary of that “excellent defence in front of him” he’s a *huge* part of it.
Sabermetrics-style statistical analyses such as “shot quality adjusted Save Percentage” can be useful even enlightening but must nonetheless be taken with a grain of salt. They are results-based rather than process-based and tend to account for “how many” much better than they do “why”.
“What’s missing from any analysis of opponent shot quality is the role the goalie himself plays in team defence above and beyond his role as stopper. In the case of Marty Brodeur sweeper non pareil he is not merely a passive beneficiary of that “excellent defence in front of him” he’s a *huge* part of it.
Sabermetrics-style statistical analyses such as “shot quality adjusted Save Percentage” can be useful even enlightening but must nonetheless be taken with a grain of salt. They are results-based rather than process-based and tend to account for “how many” much better than they do “why”.”
As for your second paragraph above no question that there is still a lot we don’t know as far as accurately determining “who’s responsible” and “how much” for every single event on the ice. Nevertheless. I think the important thing is that we do our best to use all available information to get closer to “the truth” but then view all of our inductive conclusions with a healthy dose of skepticism.
That’s exactly right. Sunny Mehta. I haven’t found a statistic yet that was perfect: goals assists. +/- blocked shots save percentage … all of them are helpful info but need to be examined in context of team coach system linemates teammates opposition era and on and on. Perhaps TOI is closest to a “pure” stat and that is still dependent on many things.
As for Brodeur you’re right he is extremely good at rebound control. He’s also exceptional at what I more generally call “housekeeping” around the cage and crease … intercepting goal mouth passes in which a potential scoring opportunity winds up not being credited as a shot of *any* quality (or a save) keeping the puck behind the goal line or directing it into the corner or through the slot to a teammate. His anticipation is first-rate and his puckhandling sublime. Thanks largely to the “no-go zone” and perhaps advancing age. I don’t see him quite as aggressively jumping on stray pucks to relieve offensive zone pressure as he once did but I can’t say enough about his contribution to team defence as the take-charge leader. It is a major factor in New Jersey’s impressive defensive statistics but subtle in that it is hard to count numbers which are not there. There’s no accounting for what he does you just have to read it between the lines of (fewer) shots against quality shots against scoring opportunities against goals against.
Claiming Brodeur is a huge part of New Jersey’s defensive success in terms of shot prevention and minimizing shot quality is probably a substantial overstatement. Yes he is a good puckhandler and does a lot of the little things well but if he truly is a major difference maker that has to show up quantitatively somewhere. Take a look at the shots against and shot quality against factors when Brodeur’s backups are in the net and you’ll find they have been more or less the same as when Brodeur was in there over the last few years. Take a look at other elite defensive teams like for example Minnesota where Lemaire has run a New Jersey-style defensive system for years and you’ll find their goalie stats despite not having any puckhandlers of Brodeur’s caliber have pretty much matched New Jersey’s for the last several seasons.
I think the evidence tends to suggest that goalies can do little to affect the shots they face other than of course controlling rebounds and even that is team-dependent because of the difficulty of the first shots and how well the defencemen clear the front of the net. I’m not sure exactly how much goaltending puckhandling is worth as a skill but I’d be willing to bet it’s a less than many believe.
For example here are the NHL’s giveaway statistics for Martin Brodeur over the last two seasons compared to his direct goaltending opponent in regular season games:
Sure. Brodeur plays the puck more than nearly everyone and much more than some but how much extra value is he actually delivering given that at least according to the RTSS stats he gives the puck away more often than the guy at the other end of the rink? If a skill is valuable it has to somehow contribute to goal creation or prevention and that should be measurable in one way or another.
Regardless. Brodeur is going to have to do something very special this season to keep his team in it because New Jersey was really skating on a razor’s edge last year even with Gomez and Rafalski and early season results don’t appear too promising.
I wouldn’t put much stock in the stats wrt Brodeur’s backups since they play so rarely usually a soft touch at home and surely the Devils are aware of the critical change and tighten things up even further. (My impressions but decidedly small number statistics no matter how you slice it.)
The giveaway stats are fairly misleading unless they can be coupled with number of clean plays … e g is a shortstop who makes 10 errors on 500 chances better than one who makes 15 errors in 1000 chances? But hockey doesn’t count chances just errors … and when it comes to giveaways the team that has the puck most of the time always seems to have the most giveaways. Presumably that would extend to goalies. You’re right that it “should be measurable” but it isn’t actually measured. How many times did Brodeur’s puckhandling contribute directly to the Devils clearing the zone? I’ll bet the ratio is a *lot* higher than 63:54.
Where did you find RTSS stats for goalie giveaways? I tried to check this out last year when it seemed like Roloson had 3-5 GV on numerous game sheets but I couldn’t find a summary and was too lazy to use the brute force method of going through 82 games worth of stats. I’d be very interested to see those same comparative numbers for Roloson and his opponent.
While I don’t agree that the goalie has little effect on the shots he faces (or doesn’t face due to his impact on the flow of play). I do agree that the Devils are in trouble this year. Brodeur or no Brodeur. That defence crew is a dog’s breakfast.
I think the examples that you and many others in the “Brodeur is overrated” camp give are overwhelming at times. Hard to ignore. But there’s one thing I can’t seem to intuitively get over so perhaps you can shed some light…
What you (and the others) are essentially saying is that if Brodeur is as overrated as you say it means the Devils as a team have been THAT incredibly good defensively for the past 13 years. So my next question is if that’s true how has that been possible?
What do they do differently than other teams and how have they been religiously able to “beat the market” for such a long period of time without other teams adjusting or mimicking?
Is it a strategy/coaching thing? It’s possible. I know Lemaire was somewhat revolutionary and Larry Robinson is an excellent coach. But it seems unlikely that something strategic couldn’t easily be analyzed and implemented by other franchises to the same level as the Devils. Though perhaps one could make the argument that the extent to which the strategy is implemented throughout the Devils’ organization (minor leagues and all) is yet unparalleled.
Is it an actual player personnel thing? Possible but seems unlikely considering how much turnover the Devils have had in terms of players over the past 13 years. True one could make the point that a few of their stalwarts like Stevens and Niedermeyer were there for a while and were huge contributors to the team’s strong defense. But if that’s the case it seems hard to ignore the fact that the only “defensive” player who has remained a constant over the past 13 years is Brodeur.
I guess in general I think it’s certainly possible that Brodeur really is that overrated. But at the same time it’s difficult for me to look at a team which as a team has let in the fewest goals over the past 13 years and has been one of the biggest defensive juggernauts in NHL history and think that the goaltender had nothing positive to do with it. (You guys are basically saying that if the Devils have had Hasek over the past 13 years they would’ve had GAA in the 1’s or something.) And to glean all that by the premise that one can measure a goaltender by only his save percentage - I don’t know. Again it’s possible but I’m at least a little skeptical. Particularly given the fact that in the post-lockout years in order to adjust to seeing more shots and still keep his GAA low. Brodeur somehow magically upped his save percentage at age 35. Was that luck? A fluke? Or is save percentage not the best correlation tool? Or even if it is the best correlation tool is Brodeur (and possibly other goalies) able to “outperform his peripherals” so to speak by doing things we haven’t been able to measure yet? (a la Barry Zito or Tom Glavine in baseball)
What do they do differently than other teams and how have they been religiously able to “beat the market” for such a long period of time without other teams adjusting or mimicking?
Personally. I suspect the personnel. The Devils have always been good at preventing shots. They do this in two ways - first they’ve actually been good at stopping the other team from getting shots. They’re also very good at avoiding game states in which the opposition gets to fire away on their goalie though - they’ve been historically good at preventing PP chances and those are where the shots tend to pile up. The last time that the Devils failed to have the fewest opponent’s PP’s was 2000-01 amazingly enough. That will drive the shots down all on its own.
It’s hard to draw conclusions about Brodeur post-lockout on the basis of a year or two. While his save percentage did indeed trend up last year he also had a great year against the PP so good that it’s unlikely to be repeated.
I’ve posted about the puckhandling before and it’s probably worth writng a blog post about. Quite simply. I don’t think that there’s enough of a margin in a goalie’s puckhandling to make it worth that much.
One of the most common consequences of the NZT is that the attacking team has no choice but to shoot the puck in. Recognizing the puckhandling strengths of his young sweeper-keeper the system-oriented Lemaire had no qualms about having his defencemen stand up at the line rather than back in. Rather than turning and retrieving and having their faces pressed to the glass the D’s job was to impede the forechecking pressure on their goalie allowing him to retrieve the puck and decide whether it’s safe to drop the puck behind the net or make the consistently sound first pass. How many times a game do you see that? 15. 20. 30? How often does the opposition gain the line in possession vs how many times do they have to shoot it in and how many of *those* times do they ever regain possession? I don’t count and I don’t know who does. But I’d wager throughout the Brodeur years New Jersey defences it the most effectively (although Ed Belfour and the Stars were mighty good at it too — the 2000 Stanley Cup Final was an instructional video for goalie puckhandling and team breakouts). Do it right enough times and the shots against are sure to drop. Surely the goalie deserves credit for his very important role in the process although it’s damn tough to find any sort of comprehensive statistic that captures it.
Re: shot prevention: the Devils played probably the most passive trap I’ve ever seen them play in the past two seasons. This meant little forechecking little puck pursuit in the offensive zone - one forechecker in the other 4 in the neutral zone awaiting the opponent’s inevitable rush. The paucity of PKs the Devils face also helps as well. Throw on Brodeur’s ability to corral pucks and it makes sense even with the lackluster defense corps the Devils have been icing these past few seasons. I also think the scorer at the Devils’ arena is a bit judicious with his counting of shots on goal too.
Re: 1 goal games - are you adjusting for the shootout ending ties? All ties should count as one goal games. The Devils have an edge in the shootout because of Brodeur. However the Devils did score 7 goals to tie a game with 1 minute or less last season - that is very clearly running hot.
Re: Losing Gomez - this ‘loss’ is overstated. There are several reasons why losing Gomez is not a big deal. First the Devils had no forecheck the past 2 seasons in part because its top 6 forwards were almost all undersized. Opposing forwards manhandle the Devils in the offensive zone and the Devils’ defensemen all have terrible shots. Against weaker teams who are going to be beat by the Devils’ speed up front this was part of their edge - but when faced up against strong defenses like Carolina and Ottawa that offense wilted. Second. Gomez’s game really doesn’t mesh with any of the current Devils (and oddly enough none of the current Rangers either) - Gomez is best with a sniper type like a Peter Bondra or Alexander Mogilny. The Devils really don’t have a player who can shoot off the rush with tremendous effectivness - Elias and Gionta are good but not great at it.
Re: your post overall: I think there’s a strong possibility the Devils miss the playoffs this year. However. I don’t think that is a big deal for them going forward - Dainius Zubrus will prove to be a very effective component of the Devils’ offense doing things that Scott Gomez and none of the other Devils’ forwards can do - forecheck and hold pucks in along the boards. Zach Parise is a legitimate future star and Travis Zajac is going to be an excellent player in the Brind’Amour/Nieuwendyk mold even if he never attains their offensive numbers. David Clarkson is looking like the next Randy McKay something which the Devils have lacked since Grant Marshall turned into a pumpkin after the lockout. Furthermore. Patrik Elias had an abysmal season last year - I don’t expect a repeat of that performance.
The Devils are one top 20 defender away from being a legitimate Stanley Cup threat once again. They’ve changed their offensive philosophy almost completely from last season and while it will take a year to work out the kinks and get this team ready almost everyone currently on the team is signed for next season. Lou Lamoriello made his mis-steps after the lockout but his signing of Zubrus for the money and years he did is a typically Lou understated brilliant move and he’s managed to make up for his draft missteps of 00-02 by signing undrafted free agents who will contribute in major ways this season and beyond.
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