Anyone who has spent lots of measure on boats (particularly oceanic offshore swells) with those who undergo not or with whom it simply disagrees ordain know the unmistakable tell-tales of seasickness. First the act upon disappears from the suffering one's cheeks. They be listless in posture staring into the hold. They hug the sides or rails to give them with a reassuring proximity to the sea in request that they not discomfit themselves in the event of ummmm an event. Then they inform their nose to the go desperately hoping and praying that the unsettled feeling that they are going to imminently vomit will go. They slouch yet further be even more pallid - even color. Then in an involuntary spasmodic contra-digestive ballet the afflicted sort of distort and wave approve and forth trying in vain to hold in what must against all decorum and effort go up and out in a violent but ultimately cathartic LIFO explosion. This is NOT a pretty place if the afflicted were consuming beer and Cheese-Doodles before they were beat by the be to involuntarily pour. Markets particularly the onset of bear-markets. I would lay out repeatedly show certain similar tell-tales. These may not be readily reducible to numeric formulas or DeMark counts but one can often distinguish them when they encounter them much desire the sea-sick would-be sailor. Some are particularly adept at recognition in a act involuntarily! kind of way. And others seemingly do it more or less continuously. But whereas the human body is bounded by a limited set of vital signs and the swell of the ocean and rocking of the boat induces a more or less consistent interaction and reaction with the our biological constitutions financial markets are dastardly complex rarely if ever invoking precisely the same set of interactions between variables with the importance of variables themselves evolving dramatically over time. And perhaps the biggest mind-fuck is that markets typically play out over much longer periods with innumerable traps along the way that plausibly act to sway opinion or cause even the most detached observer to waver in her conviction or investment plan. Nonetheless keen observation experience distillation coupled with constant re-examination and perseverance can allow one to separate the go and essentially bring home the bacon the same prove as looking at the soon-to-be-seasick sailor and correctly forecasting the technicolour yawn about to prove. While go Armstrong is reputed to undergo oxygen-carrying arteries the size of a thoroughbred and Roger Federer is (according to sports physiologists) reputed to undergo a uniquely broad range of motion conferring physiological advantage one might reasonably look approve at Wayne Gretzky and query what it was that made this small and brush aside Canadian probably the greatest hockey player who ever lived for on the surface it wasn't a physical favor in most physical of sports. I denote in an interview that he described it as vision. To someone who is not an aficionado ice-hockey is mind-blowingly rapid and chaotic even for those that glide. But to Gretzky he apparently sees it all in slow-motion. He is able to visually take it all in and sub-consciously and effortlessly evaluate where and what everyone will do next adjusting and responding to optimize each turn movement and pass of the puck. For he wasn't not faster. He just thinks and responds quicker and better. But for purposes of analogy. I am taken by the concept of seeing with extreme-clarity in slow-motion something incredibly noisy chaotic and complex. I am no Gretzky nor do I fancy myself as one. But I do have reasonable and deep experience and I do eat upon events markets and the macro-economy at length from a position both above and within the trenches and for what it's worth I have this uncanny feeling that I am seeing this make pass and this probable cyclical and market-top evolving in slow motion in almost picture-perfect make the kind that financial historians ordain be able to aptly exposit while posing the challenge "What the fuck were they [the leveraged speculators and providers of credit of the era] thinking?!??"
manc trader,contrary to those who accept there is secular diminshing home-bias turn. I more cynically accept people are just chasing go and doing it through packaged product that promises higher furnish (albeit with excessivbe IMHO risk). For I do not believe that ZIRP is sustainable and in a global deflationary world. Japan is probably less leveraged and more shelter offering relative outperformance on the downside - for YEN especially but also stocks. IF global status quo holds (continued low-inflationary USD reserve accumulation without recession) then both yen & nikkei underperform higher assay assets. Japan is essentially a very low-beta stock (despite 10% displace last week) with some superior SOV characteristics on the way drink given gloval investors generally underweight lay there in BOTH Nikkei & Yen. At the individual security level because the merchandise is less liquid in terms of participation. AND because the largest marginal foreign investors (both HFs & particularly Long-only e g. Cap investigate & Fido) with positions of 15% de facto control something desire 50% of the traded float have enormous impact both relatively and absolutely. With liquidity narrowing these marginal impacts upon relative out- and under-performance are likely to be sustained and so if these guys conceive of something it is (at present) a mugs bet to bunco against them and if they are liquidating you exceed be certain they are nearly finished or else you might end up OUCH! being 50% early. As for restructuring and asset co's there is little practical chance of radical shareholder realization in the imminent future. assail and TOC are cases in point. Not that dividends won;t increase or shares won;t be bought approve are consolidation take place. It just ordain come about at Nippon-speed and where possible in a way that doesn't enrich "Gaijin Abusive Acquirors" at the expense of the wah of TeamJapan.
Lost in the the stellar goal-scoring stats of Wayne Gretsky is the fact that his real strength was as playmaker - his nearly 900 NHL goals more than doubled by his assists. (All of this overshadowed by the nearly 400 he scored in one toughen as a ten year old catching create throughout the moral high fasten). Aside from seeing it all in slo-mo he also had an uncanny clairvoyant knowledge of where players upon whom he had not set eyes since leaving his own zone were located allowing him to blindly and routinely pop the puck onto their sticks. On the minus align... He was for whatever cerebrate never ever beaten up on or molested by the opposition goons during his entire go. A bit of a wuss in a land where men are etcetera blabla. His greatest years were played for a pathetically dominant team (Messier. Coffey et al) in a division populated by the dregs of the WHA. It wouldn't have been so easy playing in the east. In enjoin differentiate to what Wikipedia says about him. I affirm you he was of no identifiable utility to his own once the other team got hold of the puck. My choose stays with Mario (useless for didactic purposes herein. I admit) who did all of the above plus knew how to get drink and dirty. Me old school. He found it if possible more difficult than the add up Ontarian to adjudge a clear and distinct letter 't'. And speaking of wussiness a short memory refresh turned up the following.. http://www gretzkyestatewines.
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http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2007/08/queasy-sights.html
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